赢在起跑线?出生季与未来表现

Winning at the Starting Line?Season of Birth and Future Performance

我国《中华人民共和国义务教育法》第十一条规定,凡年满六周岁的儿童,其父母或者其他法定监护人应当送其入学接受并完成义务教育。按照这一规定,六岁那年出生于8月31日之前的儿童可以于当年入学,之后的应该推迟到次年入学。然而一些出生在此日期之后的儿童的家长希望孩子赢在起跑线上,想提早一年入学,因此可能会采取提前剖腹产、修改出生证明等手段对出生日期进行人为干预。假定家庭决定孩子是否提前入学是经过成本收益核算后的理性选择,那么当下中国家庭考虑更多的是提早入学带来的好处(诸如较少家庭教育支出、降低未来不确定性等),而往往忽略了推迟入学的潜在优势。本文采用2005年全国普查1%的大样本数据,通过断点回归(Regression Discontinuity Design)方法,实证分析了推迟入学在未来升学率、受教育年限和工资等方面的优势。希望本文能为家庭子女教育的理性决策作一定的参考。

The provisions of article 11 of the compulsory education law of the People＇s Republic of China are： all children over six years old shall be sent to complete compulsory education by their parents or other statutory guardians. According to this rule, in the age of six, children born before August 31 cap be admitted, while those born after should be postponed admission until the following year. However, for some children born after this date, their parents, hoping they could win on the starting line, could take cesarean section in advance of the date of birth, modify birth certificate and other means to make them admitted one year in advance. Assume that parents＂ decision on whether children shall go for early admission is a rational choice with consideration to cost, more Chinese parents are considering early admission benefits （such as less family education expenditure, reduce uncertainty about the future, etc.）, and tend to overlook the potential advantages of delay their admission. Based on the 2005 census, 1% of the country＇s large sample data, through the Regression Discontinuity Design method, empirical analysis on the advantage of delayed admission graduation rates in the future, the fixed number of yearsof the education and future wages, etc. It is hoped that this article can help rational decisions on children education.