科研机构科技资源投入与产出的多阶段时滞效应研究

Study on Multi-phases Time-lag Effect between Inputs and Outputs of S&T Resource for Scientific Research Institutes

考虑到科研机构科技资源投入与产出的多阶段性和各阶段内不同形式产出的滞后差异性,本文首先设计了研究方案,明确了变量选取的原则、过程和结果,并分别提出了多阶段时滞效应分析方法与处理方法进行各阶段内不同形式产出的滞后期测算以及各产出的数值修正。然后,利用1992-2014年的统计数据,对中国科学院及其30家代表性研究院所开展了实证研究,并以中国科学院的测算结果为基准,分类比对了各研究院所多阶段时滞效应的差异,发现高效型研究院所约占63.33%、低效型约占6.67%、失衡型占30%,进而结合致因分析给出了相应的改进建议。研究成果可以为科研机构明晰科技创新规律、保障科技资源高效配置提供有价值的决策参考。

For scientific research institutes,the process from inputs to outputs of ST resource is phased obviously. Meanwhile,there exists a lag difference among various outputs from each phase. In view of this,a research scheme is designed in this paper firstly. The principle,process and result of variable selection is determined. Also,an analysis method as well as a processing method on multi-phases time-lag effect are proposed to calculate the time lags of various outputs from each phase and revise the values of each output,respectively. Then,an empirical study on Chinese Academy of Sciences（ CAS） and its 30 typical institutes is conducted using statistical data from 1992 to 2014. Furthermore,the differences on multi-phases time-lag effect of these institutes are classified and compared using the measurement result of CAS as a benchmark. The results show that about 63.33% institutes have a high efficiency,6.67% ones have a low efficiency,and 30% ones are unbalanced. Finally,several improvement suggestions are presented according to a cause analysis. This study can provide a valuable decision reference for scientific research institutes to clarify the rules of ST innovation and ensure the high efficient allocation of ST resource.