国际粮价波动与我国粮食供给的动态关系研究——基于面板VAR的实证分析

Dynamic Relations Between International Grain Price Fluctuation and China’s Grain Supply:An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel VAR

对于国际粮价波动的冲击,我国粮食生产呈现出较缓慢的正向响应,粮食进口则表现为从负向响应转为正向响应,并逐渐收敛趋于平稳;国际粮价波动对我国粮食生产的变动具有推动作用,对进口量的变动具有较大贡献;长期来看,我国粮食进口量对生产变动的贡献率较大,而生产对进口量变动的贡献率较小。因此,完善政府宏观调控、深入粮食价格市场化改革、提升粮食增产潜力以及促进粮食产业链协同发展将成为稳定中国粮食供给的政策取向。

China＇s grain production has a slow and positive response to the impact of international grain price fluctuations,while China＇s grain imports show a negative response first,then change to a positive one,and gradually converge,and eventually tend to a stable state. The fluctuation of international grain prices has a positive effect on the change of grain production in China and contributes greatly to the change of import volume. From the long-term trend,the contribution rate of China＇s grain imports to production changes is relatively large,while the contribution rate of production to import volume changes is relatively small. Therefore,the policy orientation of stabilizing China＇s grain supply will improve the macro-control of the governments,deepen the reform of the market for grain prices,enhance the potential for increasing grain production and promote the coordinated development of the grain industry chain.