工业资本回报率的省际分化特征——基于工业劳动力迁徙视角

Provincial Differentiation Characteristics of Industry Capital Returns:From the Perspective of Industry Labor Migration

针对省际资本回报率显著分化问题,引入劳动力迁徙因素,在工业领域探索了劳动力迁徙度量方法,从劳动力流动机制、资本与劳动替代和资本回报率分化机理方面进行了分时段理论与实证研究。结果表明,工资差距是劳动力流动的主要诱因,流出省份劳动要素供给过剩向减少的转变,佐证了人口红利关闭的学术观点;同时由于"迁徙之谜"的存在,流入地区劳动供给持续增多。伴随着人口红利关闭,流出地区不得不通过持续的资本替代劳动解决劳动价格上涨问题,导致资本边际产出递减加速和回报率下滑。劳动供给缺口补充使流入地区避免了资本替代劳动可能带来的资本回报率下滑。迁徙改变的劳动供给与异质性的替代特征最终导致了资本回报率省际分化的严重后果。

Aiming at the issue of significant differentiation of inter-provincial capital returns, this paper takes into account the labor migration factors and explores the measurement method of labor migration in the field of industry, then it conducts a day-parting theoretical and empirical study from such aspects as labor migration mechanism, capital and labor substitution and the differentiation mechanism of capital returns. The results show that wage gap is the major cause of labor migration,the shift from excess supply of labor factor to shortage in the labor outflow provinces can support the academic view of demographic dividend being shutdown. At the same time, because of the existence of the migration puzzle, labor supply has kept a growing trend in labor inflow regions.Along with the demographic dividend being shut down, the labor outflow regions have to solve the problem of rising labor price through continuous substitution of labor by capital, which may result in the accelerating diminish of capital marginal output and declining returns. The supplement of labor gap in inflow regions can avoid the declining capital returns that may be resulted from substitution of labor by capital. The labor supply changed by migration and the heterogeneous substitution have finally led to serious consequences of provincial differentiation of capital returns.