供给冲击、需求冲击与我国最优货币政策规则

Supply Shocks,Demand Shocks and Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in China

近年来我国不断创新和完善宏观调控方式,探索新形势下的最优货币政策已经成为货币政策研究领域的新重点。本文构建了一个包含供给冲击和需求冲击的行为宏观经济学模型,旨在研究总供给、总需求因素影响下的货币政策实施效果与福利损失,进而探索最优货币政策规则的选择。研究发现,在供给冲击的影响下,货币政策面临稳定产出还是稳定通货膨胀的权衡;在需求冲击的影响下,注重调控产出的货币政策能够同时稳定产出和通货膨胀;从福利分析的角度来看,注重调控产出的货币政策不仅有助于引导良好社会预期,也能降低政策引致的福利损失,而对通货膨胀的过度调控会使福利损失增大。因此我国当前的最优政策是灵活产出缺口目标制,应实施以"稳增长"为目标的货币政策。

In recent years,China has continuously innovated and perfected macro-control,and explored the optimal monetary policy in the new situation,which has become a new focus in the research of monetary policy.This paper builds a behavioral macroeconomic model that employs supply shocks and demand shocks to study the effect of monetary policy and welfare loss,and explore the choice of optimal monetary policy rules.The study finds that under the impact of supply shocks,monetary policy faces the trade-off between stable output and stable inflation.Under the impact of demand shocks,the monetary policy that controls output can simultaneously stabilize output and inflation.It not only helps to guide positive social expectations,but also reduces the welfare loss while over-regulation of inflation will increase the welfare loss.The current optimal policy in China is a flexible output-gap target system,and therefore a monetary policy aimed at＂steady growth＂should be implemented.