资本价格扭曲是产能过剩的加速器吗?——基于中介效应模型的经验考察

Is Capital Price Distortion an Accelerator for Overcapacity? An Empirical Study Based on the Intermediary Effect Model

本文采用2001-2013年中国大陆31个省份工业部门面板数据,通过将产能利用率在生产侧与消费侧进行分解,测算了省际层面的综合产能利用率,并考察了资本价格扭曲对产能利用率的直接与间接影响效果。我们发现:中国工业部门存在严重的资本边际产品大于成本价格的扭曲现象;受生产侧产能利用率大幅下降的影响,产能过剩程度呈现逐年加重的态势;资本价格扭曲一方面通过激励行为加速了投资对产能过剩的恶化影响,一方面是通过抑制技术进步阻碍了对产能利用率的改善作用,最终对产能利用率表现为消极影响。因此,通过较低投资成本实现规模快速扩张,是导致产能过剩恶化的原因,而通过完善要素市场的价格决定机制可以逐渐缓解这一现象。

This paper uses panel data of 31 provinces of China from 2001 to 2013 to calculate the overcapacity index on the provincial level,and examines the direct and indirect effects of capital price distortion on capacity utilization.We find that there is a serious distortion that the marginal product of capital is greater than the cost price in China＇s industrial sector.Affected by the sharp decline of capacity utilization on the production side,the degree of overcapacity shows an increasing trend.On the one hand,the capital price distortions accelerates the impact of investment on worsening overcapacity through incentive investment behavior.On the other hand,it hinders the improvement of capacity utilization rate by inhibiting technical progress.Therefore,the final performance of the capital price distortions on production capacity utilization is negative.The rapid expansion of the production scale through low investment cost is the cause of the deterioration of overcapacity,and this phenomenon can be gradually alleviated by improving the price determination mechanism of factor markets.