1908—1948年上海工业总产值再估算

A Re-estimation of the Industrial Gross Output Value of Shanghai,1908-1948

近代上海工业总产值的估算,尤其是1936年以后,是海内外学界关注已久且有难度的一个议题。通过辨别近代上海工业总产值的各种统计及其估计值,可以发现学界以往研究均采用静态惯性思路来估测动态发展的工业进程,且采用不甚完整准确的行业数据,推测20世纪30—40年代的上海工业发展,以至于总产值的估算偏离实情较大。本文借助上海市档案馆所藏比较完整的工业用电量数据,在仔细地辨别与排除了相关干扰因素之后,对近代中后期上海工业总产值进行估算。根据相关的估算值得出1908—1948年上海工业总产值的变动,其中四个从高到低的峰值年依次为1940年、1948年、1939年、1936年,结果得到了历史文献的佐证。尽管这尚非近代中后期上海工业总产值的精准复原,更多地是一种时间序列上的相对估值,但可以修正已有的推测,也有助于进一步探究近代上海工业发展的进程、水准与趋势性特征。

The estimation of the total industrial output value of modern Shanghai, especially the estimation of the peak period after 1936, is a difficult issue that has long been concerned in the academic circles both at home and abroad. Since previous studies have used static inertial thinking to observe the dynamic development of modern industry, in addition to the lack of more accurate statistics, they used less complete industry data to speculate on the industrial development of the wartime and post-war Shanghai, then to conclude that the total industrial output value has stagnated or even declined. With the help of complete and orderly industrial electricity consumption in modern Shanghai, after careful identification and exclusion of the related interference factors, this paper makes a reliable estimate of the industrial gross output value index of modern Shanghai in a certain degree and gains three peak years in the history of Shanghai industry, which gets a double proof of the relevant text and digital data. Although this is not a precise measurement of the total industrial output value of modern Shanghai, it helps to promote the estimation of total industrial output value of modern Shanghai, and helps us further understand the process and key trends ＆ features of Shanghai industrial development before, during and after the war.