技术标准、贸易壁垒与国际经济效应研究——基于“一带一路”沿线国家的实证分析

Effect and Empirical Analysis of Technical Standards,Trade Barrier and Economy Effect on China and “Belt and Road” Countries

非关税壁垒由于其隐蔽性等特点逐渐被发达国家广泛使用,尤其是技术壁垒已逐渐发展成为许多国家贸易保护的首选工具之一。本文通过建立伯特兰德双寡头模型理论分析技术壁垒的经济效应后,基于"一带一路"倡议背景运用最新GTAP第9版数据库,分别对单方与双方降低技术壁垒、同时降低关税与技术壁垒四种方案进行实证分析。研究结论表明,在技术标准相差不大的情况下,降低技术壁垒将对中国的GDP、福利水平、贸易规模以及产出产生正向作用,且在双边达成区域贸易协定后达到新高。

Non-tariff barrier is a trade-protection policy tool used widely by developed countries because of its invisibility, especially technical barriers. It has been the priority method for many countries to protect their trade. Based on the ＂Belt and Road＂ Initiative （BRI）, this paper utilizes the Bertrand duopoly model to analyze the economic effect of technical barriers and applies the newest GTAP model to conduct empirical analysis. After trying four modeling scheme including reducing technical barrier （unilateral or bilateral）, and reducing both technical barrier and tariffs （unilateral or bilateral）, it turned out that cutting down technical barriers between China and BRI countries would have positive effects on both economic and trade activities, especially in countries with technical standards similar to China. These positive effects increased greatly after reaching the regional trade agreement.