人民币汇率变动的直接出口效应与间接收入效应——来自“一带一路”沿线国家面板数据的福利分析

Direct Export Effect and Indirect Income Effect of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation——Based on Welfare Analysis of Panel Data of Nations along “Belt and Road”

在经济新常态及"一带一路"倡议的背景下,如何在汇率制度改革与对外贸易上寻求均衡以促进经济发展、稳定就业、提高人们的福利水平是重要的研究课题。本文采用面板数据分析人民币汇率变动对中国向"一带一路"沿线30个国家出口贸易的影响,在此基础上探究出口贸易对中国人均GDP的贡献程度,并以出口为间接指标综合分析人民币汇率变动对中国人均收入的影响。实证结果显示:人民币贬值有利于中国向"一带一路"沿线国家的出口,人民币贬值一个单位会引起出口增加约0.72个单位;出口占GDP的比重每增加1个百分点,人均收入约增加2.52个百分点。最后基于实证结果提出了相应的政策建议。

Given the economic new normal and the ＂Belt and Road＂, a difficult balance exists between exchange rate regulation reform and international trade to promote economic development, stable employment, and increase people＇s welfare level. This paper presents the effect of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on China＇s export volume to 30 nations along the ＂Belt and Road＂ based on panel data, based on which a thorough inquiry on the correlation between export volume and China＇s per capita GDP is made, and comprehensively analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on China＇s per capita income with export volume as an indirect index. The empirical results show that China＇s export volume to nations along the ＂Belt and Road＂ will increase if RMB depreciates, export volume will increase by 0.72 units when RMB depreciates by 1 unit, and per capita income will increase about 2.52 percent when the proportion of exports to GDP is increased by 1 percent. Finally, this paper gives some policy suggestions according to the empirical results.