人民币汇率对中国出口企业盈利能力的影响研究--来自2006-2016年中国上市公司的证据

Effect of RMB Exchange Rate on Profitability of China's Export Firms——Evidence from China's Listed Firms in 2006-2016

本文运用垄断竞争D-S模型分析了人民币汇率对中国出口企业盈利能力的影响机理。基于此,选取2006—2016年中国上市公司的微观面板数据进行实证分析。研究结果表明:(1)人民币升值环境将抑制中国出口企业的盈利能力,人民币实际有效汇率每上升1%,出口企业毛利润显著下降0.372%;(2)人民币升值环境将制约私营出口企业的盈利水平,但会提升中外合资企业的盈利水平,人民币升值环境下中外合资企业对汇率风险的抵御能力更强;(3)东部沿海地区出口企业盈利水平受人民币升值的负面影响最小,西部地区出口企业在出口额低降幅状态下盈利能力受损最大;(4)相对于服务业及高技术产业而言,普通工农业出口企业的盈利能力受损程度更为严重,人民币升值环境会促使中国出口贸易的产业结构发生"破坏性升级"效应。该研究成果将为中国政府制定科学高效的汇率及产业政策提供重要的理论指导与决策参考。

Using a monopolistic competition model, this paper analyzes the causality effect of RMB exchange rate on the profitability of China＇s export firms. To test the mechanism, the authors conducted an empirical study, employing the firm-level panel data of China＇s listed firms in the period of 2006-2016, and, accordingly, suggested the policy implications. The study shows that： I. RMB appreciation environment has a negative effect on the profitability of China＇s export firms： a 1% appreciation in real effective exchange rate of RMB leads to a significant drop in export firms＇ gross profit by 0. 372% ; II. While the RMB appreciation environment erodes the profitability of private export firms, it improves that of joint ventures, indicating the latter is stronger in resisting risk in exchange rate; III. The profitability of export firms in eastern coastal regions suffers the least from RMB appreciation, while that of export firms in western regions suffers the most despite only a mild decrease in export volume; IV. Compared with service and hi-tech industries, the average manufacturing and agricultural industries suffer more, which implies that RMB appreciation has produced a ＂ disruptive upgrade＂ effect on the industrial structure of China＇s export sectors. Hopefully, the results of this research would serve as theoretical guidance and decision-making reference for the government to formulate scientific and ef- ficient exchange rate and industrial policies.