北京市观光农业旅游对农村经济的影响

Impact of Sightseeing Agricultural Tourism on Rural Economy in Beijing

采用协整分析、格兰杰因果关系分析及动态面板数据的广义矩估计等方法对北京市9个观光农业旅游村2006—2015年的数据进行了实证分析。结果表明:各村的观光农业旅游总收入与农村经济总收入之间都存在协整关系,观光农业旅游总收入每增长1个百分点,农村经济总收入至少增加0.6个百分点。各村的观光农业旅游发展都构成农村经济增长的格兰杰因果关系。SYS-GMM估计的回归结果表明,观光农业旅游发展水平的提高可以有效地缩小城乡收入差距。其发展水平每提高1%,城乡收入差距将缩小约1.056个百分点。这充分验证了观光农业旅游的发展是带动农村致富、农民脱贫的有效途径。

By using cointegration analysis,Granger causality analysis and generalized moment estimation of dynamic panel data,the data of 9 sightseeing agricultural tourism villages in Beijing were analyzed in this study in 2006—2015 years.The results showed that there was a cointegration relationship between the total income of tourism and agricultural tourism and the total income of rural economy in each village.The total income of sightseeing agricultural tourism increased by 1 percentage point,and the total income of rural economy increased by at least 0.6 percentage points.The development of sightseeing agriculture tourism in each village constituted the Granger causality of the rural economic growth.The regression results estimated by SYS-GMM indicate that the improvement of the level of tourism agriculture tourism development could effectively narrow the urban-rural income gap.With a 1%increase in its level of development,the income gap between urban and rural areas would decrease by about 1.056 percentage points.This fully verifies that the development of tourism in agriculture was an effective way to bring prosperity to rural areas and farmers to lift themselves out of poverty.