海平面变化研究进展

Latest research and progress on sea level change

气候变化在世界范围内产生重要影响,其中之一即海平面变化。观测记录表明全球平均海平面在21世纪以来呈现加速上升趋势,海平面上升引发一系列的海岸带灾害,影响沿海地区的社会经济发展。本文回顾了海平面变化研究的前沿动态,介绍了海平面观测的不同手段及其特点,分别从全球、区域和中国几个空间尺度阐述了海平面变化事实的最新研究进展及我们的研究成果,给出了中国沿海全海域及各海区海平面的长期变化趋势,并在此基础上对未来海平面的变化幅度进行了预测,给出了全球和中国近海及沿海未来不同时期的海平面上升预测值,对沿海地区科学应对气候变化及海平面上升影响有一定的参考意义。

Climate change has brought about significant impacts to the earth, one of which is sea level change. Observation indicates the acceleration of global mean sea level rise since the twenty-first century. Sea level rise will trigger a series of coastal disasters and affect social and economic development in the offshore areas. This paper reviewed the research updates about sea level change including different sea level observe techniques and their characteristics and the latest research results on the global, regional and coastal scales. On the basis of the long-term sea level change trends along the China coast and in the China seas, the future sea level changes are projected utilizing ensemble projection method. The sea level rise projections under different scenarios are given for global ocean and China seas, which provides reference for climate change and sea level rise adaption in the coastal areas.