长江上游梯级水库泥沙冲淤长期预测初步研究

Long-term Sedimentation Prediction of Cascade Reservoirs in the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River

采用长江上游梯级水库联合调度泥沙数学模型,开展了考虑干支流水库群拦沙影响的长江上游梯级水库联合调度泥沙冲淤500年长期预测计算,并对乌东德、白鹤滩、溪洛渡、向家坝、三峡水库淤积过程及库区淤积初步平衡时间进行了初步分析.结果表明：在1991-2000年水沙条件下,不考虑龙盘梯级时,乌东德、白鹤滩、溪洛渡、向家坝、三峡水库的库区淤积初步平衡时间分别约为140、230、260、270、340年;考虑龙盘梯级时,乌东德、白鹤滩、溪洛渡、向家坝、三峡水库的库区淤积初步平衡时间分别约为180、270、290、300、370年.各水库淤积平衡时间均比原设计有较大延长.

The sediment mathematical model,which considers the integrated operation of the cascade reservoirs in the upper Yangtze reach and most of its tributaries,was adopted to carry out 500-year long-term predictions of sediment transport and riverbed deformation in these rivers. The predictions used the 1991 - 2000 hydrological process of flows and sediment transport. The sedimentation processes of the Wudongde,Baihetan,Xiluodu,Xiangjiaba and the Three Gorges reservoirs were analyzed,while the equilibrium time of the reservoirs ＇ sedimentation were preliminarily determined. Without the influence of the Longpan reservoir,the equilibrium time of the preceding reservoirs are 140,230,260,270 and 340 years,respectively. When the influence of the Longpan reservoir is included,the equilibrium time of the preceding reservoirs are 180,270,290,300 and 370 years,respectively. The equilibrium time of the simulated reservoirs are all significantly extended,comparing with the expected values in the studies of original designs.