不同类型洪水过程线的随机模拟

Stochastic Simulation of Different Flood Hydrographs

针对传统洪水模型常常忽略洪水过程线形状的问题,本文提出了一种可以用于模拟不同类型洪水过程线的随机模型.该模型用三维Copula函数构建了洪量、洪峰和洪水历时3个洪水特征量间的联合概率分布函数,并对洪水过程线形状进行了无量纲的分类和随机模拟,最后将洪水特征量和无量纲的洪水过程线形状进行融合形成完整的洪水过程线.以浙江省双塔底和金华两站为例,分析论证了该模型的可行性和实用性.结果表明,该模型切实可用,不仅考虑了洪水特征量间的相依性,而且考虑了洪水过程线形状的随机性对工程规划的潜在影响,模拟结果更符合水文现象的内在规律和满足工程规划的实际需求.

To solve the problem of neglecting the shape of flood hydrograph in the traditional flood generation model,a new stochastic model of simulating different types of flood hydrograph was proposed. This model adopted the three-dimensional Copula to construct the joint probability function of flood characteristics（ i. e.,flood volume,flood peak and flood duration）,and classified flood hydrographs into different types on the basis of dimensionless flood mass curves and then stochastically simulated different types of flood hydrographs. Finally,the complete flood hydrograph can be formed by integrating the flood characteristics with dimensionless flood hydrographs. This model was applied to Shuangtadi Station and Jinhua Station in Zhejiang Province to analyze and demonstrate its applicability and practicability. The results indicate that this model can be successfully applied. The model not only considers the dependence of flood characteristics,but also takes the potential influences of stochastic flood hydrograph shapes on project planning into account,which are more in accordance with the inherent mechanism of hydrological phenomena and can meet the practical requirements of engineering designs.