基于系统动力学和可变模糊集的水土资源保障风险仿真与评价

Predicting and Evaluating the Water and Soil Resources Security Risk Based on System Dynamics and Variable Fuzzy

针对黑龙江省水土资源供需失衡导致的保障风险问题,采用SD（System Dynamics,SD）模型和可变模糊集理论开展区域水土资源保障风险仿真和评价研究.该文构建了黑龙江省水土资源SD模型,分别从供给与需求的角度构建水土资源保障风险评价指标体系,运用可变模糊集法对黑龙江省水土资源保障风险进行评价.仿真和评价结果显示,若黑龙江省水土资源继续按现状标准发展,将面临土地后备资源减少、土地多样性降低、生态环境破坏、水资源短缺等问题,同时将产生一定程度的水土资源保障风险.根据可能产生的风险,通过SD模型对水土资源保障风险代表性驱动因素进行了原因树分析,并根据区域实际情况及分析结果提出一系列保障风险规避措施.

Consider the security risk caused by the imbalance in supply and demand of soil and water resources in Heilongjiang province,use the SD model and the theory of variable fuzzy sets the simulation and evaluation of soil and water resources security risk. This paper built the SD model of soil and water resources in Heilongjiang province,established the evaluation index system of soil and water resources security risk respectively from the angle of supply and demand to evaluate the security risk of soil and water resources in Heilongjiang province.According to the results of simulation and evaluation,The soil and water resources security risk in Heilongjiang province would continue to increase during the planning year,and the index of soil and water resources security risk is expected to increase to 2. 37 in 2030,it can be seen that Heilongjiang province would face the problem of security risk,such as the reduce of potential land resources,the decrease of land diversity,the destruction of ecological environment,the shortage of water resources and the security risk of water and soil resources. According to the risk which would possibly happen,a cause tree was set to analysis the driving factors of soil and water resources security risk,and a series of measures are put forward to solve the problem of security risk according to the situation and the results of the analysis. This paper put forward the concept of water and soil resources security risk,combine SD with variable fuzzy set theory to make people understand the current nonlinear and time-varying phenomena and provide the possibility for the risk assessment of complex systems.