房地产价格上涨对工业产出的影响及状态性特征--基于中国大中城市数据的实证分析

The Impact of Rising Real Estate Price on Industrial Output and Its State-Dependent Feature——Empirical Analysis Based on Large and Medium Cities in China

房地产价格过快上涨对实体经济(包括制造业)产生冲击已成为中国经济发展中的重要现象,但关于此问题的实证研究却较为缺乏。本文从资本抵押担保效应、成本上升效应、资本错配效应、金融资源争夺效应等四个渠道分析了房地产价格上涨对工业产出的影响机理,并通过动态面板系统GMM方法对中国70个大中城市进行了实证分析。结果显示:(1)尽管理论上,房价上涨对工业产出同时具有"抑制效应"和"促进效应",但实证研究表明,中国城市房价增速的提高会导致工业产出增速出现一定程度的下降,"抑制效应"大于"促进效应";(2)房价波动对工业产出的影响具有状态性特征,在房价持续上升期内房价上涨的负面影响显著,但在非持续上升期内影响不显著,并且对于经济发展水平较低的城市来说,房地产价格上涨对工业产出的抑制作用更加明显。因此,必须坚持房地产调控政策不放松,坚决抑制房价过快上涨,才能保持工业部门及实体经济的持续发展,并且在房地产调控过程中,不能仅关注一二线城市,还要高度警惕经济相对落后地区的房价快速上升给当地工业化进程带来的不利冲击。

It has become an important phenomenon in China＇s economic development that the rise of real estate prices has impacted on the real economy, including manufacturing. However, the empirical research on this problem is scare. This paper analyzes the effect of excessive rising real estate prices on industrial output, from mortgage effect, cost rise effect, capital mismatch effect and financial resource competition effect. Using the dynamic panel system GMM method, this paper empirically analyzes the data of 70 cities in China. The result shows：（1）The upward of China＇s real estate price growth will lead to decrease of industrial output growth rate, and the ＂inhibitory effect＂ is stronger than the ＂promoting effect＂;（2）The impact of housing price on industrial output is state-dependent, which is negative significantly during the persist rising period, but not significant during other period. Moreover, for the cities with lower-level economic development, the inhibitory effect is more obvious. Therefore, in order to maintain the sustainable development of the industrial sector and the real economy, it is necessary to adhere to the tight real estate regulation policy. In addition, the government should not only pay attention to 1-2 tier cities, but should be highly alert to the adverse impact on the local industrialization process in developing regions.