房产估值与房产税公平性研究

Research on the House Values Assessment and Equity in Property Tax

基于中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,本文分析了房产特征信息对房产价值的相对贡献,房产特征信息包括使用面积、房间数量、房龄等变量,使用房产特征变量的享乐回归方法估计出房产价值,并分别以绝对值、相对值(估计值除以市场价值)两种形式计算出房价预测误差。结果显示:房产规模变量相比于房产其他变量而言,估计的精确性提高,纳入享乐回归的变量越多预测的结果越精确;房屋价值被低估的往往是高技能和高收入家庭,所以基于这种估值的税收评估系统会产生累退性误差,进而也会引致累退性的房产税;在房产税率为比例税情况下,即使对收入最穷的10%的家庭进行税收豁免,其对收入再分配的影响仍是累退性的。

Using data of China Household Finance Survey（CHFS）, this paper analyses the contribution that information about property characteristics can make to determine the relative values of properties in urban areas of China. These characteristics are house size in square meters, the number of rooms in the home, the age of the house. The values of residential properties are estimated using Hedonic including these variables and the prediction errors are presented in terms of the absolute value error and the assessment ratio. The results show that size characteristics produce more accurate estimates compared to other variable. The more variables included, the more precise the prediction is. Households whose house price is undervalued tend to be those highly skilled professionals and high income earners, so a tax assessment system based on this type of valuation would tend to make regressive errors, and a property tax itself is regressive too. In the case of a proportional tax rate of property, the effect of income redistribution is still regressing even if tax exemption is granted to 10% of the poorest households.