社会保险缴费对工资和就业的转嫁效应——基于行业特征和经济周期的考察

Shifting Effect of Social Insurance Contribution on Wages and Employment——Based on the Analysis of Industry Features and Business Cycle

社会保险缴费给中国企业施加了较大的成本压力,而追求利润最大化的企业是否有动机对其进行转嫁呢?本文运用标准的劳动力市场模型讨论企业通过降低工资水平和减少劳动力需求的方式转嫁社会保险缴费的条件。在此基础上,本文结合中国的行业特征和经济周期变化对社会保险缴费的转嫁效应进行实证检验。研究发现:劳动密集型行业和低风险行业的社会保险缴费对工资与就业水平的转嫁效应大于非劳动密集型行业和高风险行业,并且这一效应在萧条期被扩大,在扩张期被减弱,但是非劳动密集型行业和高风险行业的转嫁效应在萧条期和扩张期的差异较小。本文研究结论所包含的政策含义是,应适当降低社会保险缴费比例,并根据行业特征和经济周期的变化增加社会保险缴费的灵活性。

Since social insurance contribution puts greater pressure on Chinese enterprises, do the enterprises pursuing profit maximization have the motive to shift it？ Using the classical labor market model, this paper presents the conditions of shifting social insurance contribution to workers in the form of lower wages and employment. On the basis, we make an empirical test to the shifting effect of social contribution according to industry features and business cycles of China. Our research finds that the shifting effect on wages and employment of labor-intensive and low-risk industries is higher than non labor-intensive and high-risk industries. Moreover, the effect is enlarged in recession period and weakened in expansion period, but there are very small differences between non labor-intensive and high-risk industries in the same business cycles. Therefore, it is necessary to decrease appropriately the ratio of social insurance contribution and increase the flexibility of social insurance contribution according to industry features and business cycles.