全面二孩政策下上海城镇职工养老金财政压力测算及对策研究

Financial Stress Estimation and Policy Study of Shanghai Pension Fund for Urban Employees under the Universal Two-Child Policy

本文以全面二孩政策为背景,构建人口预测模型和养老保险基金收支预测模型,以2010年为基年,预测出上海市2011-2060年的人口结构,进而对上海市2017-2060年的城镇职工基本养老保险基金缺口和变动趋势进行测算,并进行了进一步提高生育率水平、扩大人口机械增长数量、延迟退休年龄三个方案下的数值模拟。测算结果表明:(1)目前的全面二孩政策无法扭转上海城镇职工基本养老保险收不抵支的趋势,也难以抑制养老金缺口不断扩大的走势;2060年,上海当期收支缺口达到0.96万亿元,占当年上海一般公共预算收入的17.2%,占当年上海市地区生产总值的3.9%,养老金赡养率为1.56。(2)三种应对方案下养老金缺口得到不同程度的弥补,缺口缩小比例极值年份分别为:方案一于2060年缩小3.7%;方案二于2027年缩小36.2%;方案三于2050年缩小63.6%。即对养老金收支差额影响的敏感度为延迟退休年龄方案最高、扩大人口机械增长数量方案次之、提高生育率水平方案最低。

Based on the universal two-child policy, this paper developed both a population prediction model and a prediction model of pension fund gaps for Shanghai, and then estimated the population structures from 2011 to 2060, and also the pension fund gaps from 2017 to 2060. Furthermore, we performed scenario simulations under three different policy alternatives： to increase the total fertility rate, to increase the intensity of non-native population introduction, and to delay retirement progressively. The result showed that, the current universal twochild policy cannot reverse the trend of pension fund deficits in Shanghai, and cannot prohibit the increasingly expanding gaps, and pension fund gaps will be compensated to different degrees under three policy alternatives.