基于系统动力学的浙江省物流业碳减排策略分析

Analysis on Carbon Emissions Reduction Strategy of Logistics Industry in Zhejiang Based on System Dynamics

依据我国"十三五"规划提出的减排目标,应用系统动力学,构建浙江省物流业碳排放仿真模型,从增加环保投资、降低单位能耗、降低碳排放因子、改善运输方式这四方面进行降碳减排对策情景模拟。不同情景模拟结果表明,浙江省物流业碳排放治理费用严重不足,需进一步增加环保投资比例;降低单位能耗与碳排放因子在实现浙江省物流业低碳化过程中起到了十分关键的作用,需引起政府足够的重视;此外,铁路运输具有明显的能耗低、污染小等优势,需加大铁路运输在浙江省物流业中的应用。对模拟效果的进一步分析显示,浙江省政府应该大力发展物流技术水平,提高能源使用效率,进一步发挥物流业规模效应、能源强度效应对碳排放的抑制作用;优化能源结构,提高清洁能源的使用比例,推动低碳物流持续发展。

Based on the emission reduction targets proposed in China＇s 13 th Five-year Plan and applying system dynamics, this paper constructs the simulation model of the logistics industry carbon emissions of Zhejiang, and conducts scenario simulation of the carbon reduction countermeasures from the four aspects which are increasing investment in environmental protection, reducing unit energy consumption, reducing carbon emission factors, and improving transportation mode. The results of different scenario simulations show that the cost of carbon emission control for logistics industry in Zhejiang is seriously insufficient and the proportion of investment in environmental protection needs to be further increased; reducing the unit energy consumption and carbon emission factors play a key role in realizing the low-carbon targets of the logistics industry in Zhejiang and call for further attention from the government; in addition, railway transportation has obvious advantages such as low energy consumption and low pollution, thus it is necessary to increase the application of railway transportation in the logistics industry in Zhejiang. Further analysis of the simulation results shows that the Zhejiang provincial government should vigorously develop higher logistics technologies, improve their energy efficiency, and further exert the restraining effect of the scale effect and energy intensity effect of the logistics industry on carbon emissions, optimize the energy structure, increase the proportion of clean energy used and promote the sustainable development of low-carbon logistics.