武汉至广州商品汽车运输方式及基于logit模型的分担率研究

Research on Commodity Vehicle Transport Mode between Wuhan and Guangzhou and Its Sharing Ratio Based on Logit Model

从武汉市商品汽车主要运输方式、武汉市开展商品汽车滚装运输、武汉-广州商品汽车运输需求量及运能分析等方面分析了武汉市商品汽车运输市场状况,在此基础上,运用Logit模型,从经济性、快速性、安全性、方便性、环境影响和运量影响六个方面,对武汉至广州的商品汽车运输方式的分担率进行了测算,结果表明,铁路和水路运输的分担率均呈现上升趋势,而公路运输分担率则大幅下降,此研究可以为商品汽车运输行业的决策者提供参考。

This paper analyzes the commodity vehicle transport market of Wuhan from the aspects of main transport modes, ro- rotransportation, market demand between Wuhan and Guangzhou and transport capacity, etc., on the basis of which, it uses the Logit model tocalculate the sharing ratio of the transport modes in the transportation of commodity vehicles between Wuhan and Guangzhou from six aspectswhich are economy, rapidity, safety, convenience, environmental impact and transportation capacity impact. The results show that the share ofrailway and waterway transportation will rise, while that of highway will drop sharply.