基于组合模型的北京市卫生技术人员数量发展趋势预测

Prediction of development trend of the number of health technicians in Beijing based on combined model

[目的]对北京市卫生技术人员数量进行预测,分析其未来发展趋势,为相关部门确定卫生技术人员需求量提供参考依据。[方法]利用2007-2017年《北京市卫生工作统计资料》,描述近10年北京市卫生技术人员数量的发展变化情况,分别采用较为可靠的人口学、数理统计和时间序列预测方法中"人力人口比值法、二次多项式和GM (1,1)模型"作为预测方法,并构建三者的组合模型,对未来5年间(2017-2021年)北京市卫生技术人员数量进行预测。[结果]加权平均组合模型预测效果较单一模型好,结果显示北京市卫生技术人员数量呈逐年上升趋势,且较全国增速快,但仍存在供不应求、质量较低、结构不尽合理的问题。[结论]北京市卫生技术人员数量发展态势良好,但同时,相关部门应加大卫生技术人员培养力度,优化卫生技术人员结构。

Objective To forecast the number of health technicians in Beijing, analyze its trend of development in the future, so as to provide reference for related departments to determine quantity demand of health technicians. Methods This article used health work statistical data from 2007 to 2017 in Beijing to describe development and changes of the number of health technicians in Beijing in past ten years. It adopted more reliable demography, mathematical statistics and ＂manpower population ratio method, quadratic polynomial and GM （1, 1 ） model＂ in time series prediction respectively as prediction method. It built combined model of three factors to predict the number of health technicians in Beijing in next five years （2017 - 2021 ）. Results The weighted average combined model was more effective than single model The results showed that the number of health technicians in Beijing showed an upward trend year by year, and it was faster than the national growth rate. However, there is still a problem that the supply was in short supply, the quality was low, and the structure was not reasonable. Conclusions The number of health technicians in Beijing is developing well. At the same time, relevant departments should increase the training of health technicians and optimize the structure of health technicians.