基于路网容量的城市机动车管理策略

Strategy Research on Urban Motor Vehicle Management based on Network Capacity

为了缓解城市交通拥堵问题,从降低交通需求的角度,分析提出合理限制机动车保有量的政策措施.以大连市16条主要道路为调查对象,开展道路交通流量和道路平均车速的交通调查,利用Trans CAD软件进行道路交通流量预测及饱和度分析.参考国内外典型案例分析,依据交通预测数据,近期提出大力发展公交的策略,鼓励小汽车向公共交通转移;远期提出合理限制机动车保有量的汽车限购与尾号限行措施.通过对比分析,定量研究了上述策略的实施效果.研究表明,借助近期策略和远期方案措施,未来城市交通拥堵情况能够得到明显改善.

In order to alleviate urban traffic congestion issue,the policy measures for vehicle ownership controlling is analyzed and proposed from the angle of reducing traffic demand. Taking 16 main roads of Dalian city as the investigation object,the traffic flow and average speed are investigated,and the traffic prediction and saturation are analyze by TransCAD software. With the reference of domestic and foreign typical case analysis and base on traffic prediction data,the recent development of public transport is analyzed,and bus transfer is encouraged. The reasonable limit of car purchases and hinder private line restrictions is proposed,and comparison analysis is conducted to study quantitatively the effect of the above strategies. The results show that with the aid of recent programme and forward planning policy,urban traffic congestion can be obviously improved in the future.