基于回归分析的长春市需水量预测研究

Study on the water demand prediction of Changchun City based on regression analysis

长春市所在流域内人口众多,近几年工农业生产逐渐发展,用水量不断大,使得水资源开发利用程度较高。通过多元线性回归分析方法对长春市历年用水情况、人口数量、国民经济发展等数据进行合理分析,确定影响用水量的影响因子,通过对模型的检验、分析,建立适用的多元线形分析模型,利用模型对长春市2020年的城市需水量进行预测,根据预测的结果对照吉林省确定的2020年长春市的用水指标,为城市未来的发展规划及产业结构调整提供数据支撑。

Changchun City has large population in the river basin, the water consumption has continuously increased along with the development of industry and agriculture in recent years, and then the degree of development and utilization of water resources is higher. Based on the data about the water use, population and national economic development of Changchun City over the years, the multiple linear regression analysis method is used to analyze and determine the impact factors of water consumption. Through the model inspection and analysis, a suitable multivariate linear analysis model is built for predicting the water demand of Changchun City in 2020. Compared with the water consumption indicators in Changchun City in 2020 determined by Jilin province, the prediction results would provide data support for the urban future development plan and the industrial structure adjustment.