俄罗斯经济发展新态势及参与南南合作评析

A review of Russia's Economic Development and Its Participation in South-South Cooperation

2017年以来,俄罗斯进入了经济社会发展的最关键时期。当前宏观经济增长状况的各项指标与普京实现改善民生和强国战略的宏伟目标差距甚远。除了国内经济的结构性问题外,本国的投融资环境、政府管理制度以及依然严峻的人口问题是制约经济发展的内因;欧美制裁和美国的贸易保护政策等外在因素对俄罗斯经济影响不容低估。俄应减少限制,改善投资环境,加强制度创新,发挥制度对经济发展的支撑作用。在区域经贸合作方面,俄罗斯的努力主要集中于欧亚经济联盟。目前已有约50个国家与欧亚经济联盟就签署自由贸易协定展开谈判。在近年来国力受限的情况下,俄对南南合作更加重视,这也是俄罗斯摆脱经济增长困境、拓展国际生存空间的重要现实选择。

Since 2017, Russia has entered the most critical period of its economic and social development. The indicators of current macroeconomic growth are far from Putin’s ambitious goals of improving people’s livelihood and strengthening national power strategy. In addition to the structural problems, the domestic investment and fnancing environment, the government management system and the serious demographic problems are the internal factors that hinder economic development. The influence of external factors such as the Western countries’ sanctions and the US trade protection policy on the Russian economy cannot be underestimated as well. Russia should reduce restrictions, improving the investment environment, strengthening institutional innovation and give play to institutional support for economic development. In terms of regional economic and trade cooperation, Russia’s efforts mainly focus on the Eurasian economic union. About 50 countries have been negotiating free trade agreements with the Eurasian economic union. Due to the limited national strength, Russia attaches more importance to south-south cooperation, which is also an important realistic choice for Russia to get rid of the economic growth dilemma and expand its international living space.