威海市发热伴血小板减少综合征与气象因素关系

Relationship between severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome and meteorological factors in Weihai City

目的探讨威海市发热伴血小板减少综合征(SFTS)与气象因素的关系。方法对威海市2011~2015年SFTS发病情况和气象因素进行统计描述,将有SFTS病例的月定义为病例月,无SFTS病例的月定义为非病例月;对比分析病例月和非病例月的气象因素之间是否存在差异;建立决策树对气象因素变量进行二元分离后纳入负二项回归模型,对模型进行诊断,拟合最优模型,分析气象因素对SFTS的影响。结果威海市SFTS发病存在明显的季节趋势,每年5~10月为发病高峰期;病例月与非病例月的气象因素除月平均日照时数外,气温、风速等其他气象因素均有差异;月平均气温高于14℃时,SFTS的发病率升高(RR=3.41,95%CI:1.12~10.89);月平均风速高于5.8 m/s时,SFTS的发病率降低(RR=0.62,95%CI:0.39~0.96)。结论月平均气温高于14℃可能是SFTS的危险因素,月平均风速高于5.8 m/s可能是疾病的保护因素。

Objective To explore the relationship between severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome（ SFTS） and meteorological factors in Weihai City. Methods The incidence of SFTS and the meteorological factors in Weihai City from 2011 to 2015 were statistically interpreted. The months in which SFTS occurred were defined as the case months,and the months without SFTS occurrence were the non-case months. The case months and non-cases months were compared to analyze the differences in meteorological factors. Decision tree was established to classify the meteorological factors,which were then fit into negative binomial regression. The variables were diagnosed to select the optimal model.After that,the impacts of meteorological factors on SFTS were analyzed. Results There was a clear seasonal trend in the incidence of SFTS in Weihai City,and May to October was the peak of onset of the disease. The comparative analysis showed that there were differences in meteorological factors between the case months and non-case months except for average monthly sunshine duration. When the average monthly temperature was higher than 14℃,the incidence of SFTS increased（ RR =3. 41,95%CI： 1. 12-10. 89）. When the average monthly wind speed was faster than 5. 8 m/sthe incidence of SFTS decreased（ RR = 0. 62,95% CI： 0. 39-0. 96）. Conclusion The average monthly temperature above 14 ℃ may be a risk factor for SFTS,while the average monthly wind speed above 5. 8 m/s may be a protective factor for the disease.