基于熵值法的低碳农业发展水平测度及影响因素研究——以甘肃省为例

Study on Low Carbon Agriculture Development Level Measurement and Influencing Factors Based on Entropy Method-Take Gansu Province as Example

从低碳经济和绿色发展的角度出发,采用熵值法,从社会、经济、减排及生态方面选取20个指标,重新构建低碳农业发展综合评价体系,以甘肃省为研究样本,进行动态评价研究。研究结果显示,2005年—2014年甘肃省低碳农业发展水平总体上呈现不断上升趋势,但是农业经济效应和生态效应提升缓慢。通过对农业总产值与主要投入要素进行岭回归分析,发现农用塑料薄膜、农药施用量、农业机械总动力和农用柴油消耗量等是影响低碳农业发展的主要因素,但是农业化肥施用量已得到有效控制,研究表明所构建的评价指标体系是正确、可行的。在此基础上,提出了推进低碳农业发展的对策建议。

From the perspective of low-carbon economy and green development, this paper uses entropy method to select20 indicators from society, economy, emission reduction and ecology aspects, and reconstructs a comprehensiveevaluation system for low-carbon agriculture development, taking Gansu Province as a Dynamic evaluation researchsample. The research results show that the development level of low-carbon agriculture in Gansu Province in 2005-2014 isgenerally on the rise, but the agricultural economic effects and ecological effects are slow to improve. Through the ridgeregression analysis of the total agricultural output value and the main input factors, it is found that agricultural plastic film,pesticide application amount, agricultural machinery total power and agricultural diesel consumption are the main factorsaffecting the development of low-carbon agriculture, but the application amount of agricultural chemical fertilizer hasbeen obtained. Effective control. The research shows that the evaluation index system constructed is correct and feasible.On this basis, the countermeasures and suggestions for promoting the development of low-carbon agriculture were putforward.