吴忠市近48年气温序列统计诊断与分析

Statistical Diagnostics and Analysis of Temperature Series in 48 Years in Wuzhong City

依据吴忠国家气象观测站1970—2017年逐年逐月逐日气温资料,运用线性回归、曼-肯德尔检验分析方法(MK检验)研究吴忠市气温的变化趋势。结果表明:近48年吴忠市平均气温在20世纪90年代初期的增暖是一突变现象,具体从1991年开始;高温日数存在两个突变点,分别在2005年和2009年,此后高温日数明显增多;吴忠市春季和冬季气温未发生突变,1997年是夏季气温升高的突变点,而秋季气温升高的突变点发生在1995年;冬季平均气温明显升高的时间较春、夏、秋季都早,其次是春、秋季,最后是夏季。冬季气温增暖主要是由最低气温升高所致,对农业的影响有利有弊,有利于增加越冬作物种植面积,有利于冬小麦、葡萄等的安全越冬,但也可能使农作物的抗寒冷能力减弱,受病虫害几率增大,因此应该因地制宜开展种植,提高气象灾害监测预警能力,提前防范应对不利于农业生产的气象灾害的发生。

According to temperature data by year, month and day between 1970 and 2017 observed by National Meteorological Station in Wuzhong, the linear regression and Mann-Kendall （MK） test were used to study the variation trend of temperature in Wuzhong City. The results indicated that the warming of average temperature in the early 1990s from 1991 in recent 48 years was a sudden change. The high temperature days had two abrupt change points in 2005 and 2009, and the high temperature days increased obviously thereafter. There were no sudden temperature changes in spring and winter in Wuzhong City. The abrupt change point of summer temperature rising was in 1997; while the abrupt change point of autumn temperature rising was in 1995. The obvious average temperature rising in winter was the earliest, followed by in spring, autumn and summer. This was mainly caused by the minimum temperature rise, which had both advantageous and adverse effects on agriculture. It was helpful to increase the planting area of winter crops and ensure the safe wintering of winter wheat and grape and etc., but it could weaken the cold-hardiness of crops and increase the possibility of falling prey to diseases and insect pests. Therefore, the planting should be carried out according to local conditions. Meanwhile, the meteorological disasters monitoring and early warning capacity should be improved to prevent and control the disasters.