美姑山羊体尺体重相关分析及生长曲线模型拟合

The Growth Curve Fitting and the Correlation Analysis between Body Weight and Body Measurements in Meigu Goat

根据四川省凉山彝族自治州美姑县三岗种羊场的382只美姑山羊出生后各月龄的体重及体尺记载资料,采用SPSS19.0对公、母羊主要生长性状进行了显著性比较和相关性分析,对Gompertz、Bertalanffy和Logistic 3种生长拟合模型的体重增长曲线拟合度进行了比较分析,对美姑山羊生长曲线选择了较为适宜的拟合方程,旨在为合理利用美姑山羊种质资源和选种繁育提供依据。结果表明:(1)美姑山羊公羊3月龄体重、6月龄体重、8月龄体重、周岁体重都极显著高于母羊同时期体重;性别对山羊体重的影响很大。(2)相关性分析结果表明,在控制变量体高和体长,体重与胸围具有显著性差异;而控制体高和胸围或控制体长和胸围后,体重与体长或体高差异均不显著。R2为0.977,所以体重可以用胸围通过方程表示,回归方程:Y=1.114x-48.174,其中Y为体重(kg);x代表胸围(cm)。真实值与预测值差异在3.564 kg之内。(3)选用Gompertz、Bertalanffy和Logistic等3种非线性生长模型分别对美姑山羊公羊母羊生长进行拟合,公羊生长曲线最佳模型选择Logistic:W=53.94×(1+2.74e-0.106t)-1;母羊生长曲线最佳模型选择Gompertz:W=50.15×e^(-1.44exp(-0.023t))。

This study is based on the data of body weight and body size of 382 Meigu goats after birth in MeiguCounty, Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture, Sichuan province. Using SPSS19.0 we compared and correlated themain growth traits of male and female Meigu goats, and we compared 3 fitting models of body weight growth,Gompertz, Bertalanffy and Logistic, to find a more precise growth model for Meigu goat＇s pattern . Getting these basicdata is for the purpose of rationally utilizing this specie＇s hereditary information and scientifically proceeding breedselection in the future. The results showed that （1） Meigu male goat＇s body weight in three month age, six month age,eight month age and one year age were significantly higher than that of female goat during the same period. Sex has agreat effect on goat weight. （2） Correlation analysis showed that there was significant difference between body weightand chest size in the control variables of height and length, and the difference of body weight with length or heightwas not significant after controlling the height and bust or controlling the length and bust. R2 is 0.977, so the weightcan be expressed by the bust through the equation, the regression equation：Y=1.114x-48.174, where Y is weight （kg）,x is the bust （cm）. The difference between the true value and the predicted value is within 3.564kg. （3） Selection of 3kinds of nonlinear growth models, such as Gompertz, Bertalanffy and Logistic, were used to fit the growth of Meigurams and ewes, and the best model of ram growth curve was chosen logistic：W=53.94×（1 ＋2.74e-0.106t）-1. The best model of ewe growth curve was chosen Gompertz：W=50.15×e-1.44exp（-0.023t）.