经济增长、城市化与大城市化——发达国家的发展实践及对中国的启示

Economic Growth,Urbanization and Large-Urbanization——The Development Practice of Developed Countries and the Enlightenment to China

本文通过建立面板向量自回归模型,实证分析了1961~2016年发达国家经济增长、城市化与大城市化间的互动关系。结果表明,城市化和大城市化均是促进发达国家经济增长的重要途径,同时经济增长对于城市化与大城市化的发展也具有正向带动作用,且城市化为大城市化进程做出了必要准备,但大城市的过度发展不利于城市化水平的提升。本文结合中国的发展实际,从城市化与大城市化的视角,提出进一步加快构建现代经济体系的对策建议。

This paper establishes the panel vector auto-regression model to empirically analyzes the interactive relationship between economic growth,urbanization and large-urbanization in developed countries from 1961 to 2016. The results show that urbanization and large-urbanization are important ways to promote economic growth in developed countries. Meanwhile,economic growth also plays a positive role in the development of urbanization and large-urbanization. And urbanization provides a necessary preparation for the process of large-urbanization,but the excessive development of the large cities is not conducive to the upgrading of the urbanization level. Finally,according to the realities of China＇s development,this paper puts forward some suggestions to further speed up the construction of modern economic system from the perspectives of urbanization and large-urbanization.