基于VAR模型的碳汇价值对我国木材价格的影响

Influence of carbon sink value on China's wood price based on VAR model

【目的】通过碳汇相关政策调节木材价格,提高林木经营者的收入水平,激发林农营林的积极性,促进木材市场有序发展。【方法】利用1994—2016年我国的碳汇价值和木材价格数据建立VAR模型,并运用脉冲响应函数与方差分解验证碳汇价值对木材价格的影响。【结果】碳汇价值冲击对木材价格是一种正向响应;在滞后期为第2期时碳汇价值冲击引起木材价格出现最大的正响应,此时木材价格受到碳汇价值影响最大,实现了综合收益的最大化;碳汇价值对木材价格波动的贡献度达15%。【结论】森林的固碳能力在森林的生长中发挥着越来越重要的作用,应该在森林经营的过程中给予适当的考虑。碳汇价值对木材价格表现正向影响,实现了木材经济价值与森林生态价值的双增长,也实现了碳汇收益和木材收益的总和最大化。应该将森林的碳汇价值纳入木材价格管理体系之中,提高林木经营者的积极性。

【Objective】Use the relevant policies of carbon sinks to adjust the price of wood,raise forest managers＇ income level,increase enthusiasm in forest management,and promote systematic development of the wood resources market.【Method】Use the data on China＇s carbon sink value and wood prices from 1994 to 2016 to establish the VAR model,and use impulse response function and variance decomposition to verify the impact of carbon sink value on wood prices.【Result】The impact of carbon sink value is a positive response to the price of wood; in the lag period of the second phase,the value impact of carbon sink induces large positive response in wood prices. Currently,the price of wood is most affected by the value of carbon sink,and maximizes total profits; the contribution of carbon sink value to the fluctuations in wood price reaches 15%.【Conclusion】The ability of carbon sequestration in forests plays an increasingly important role in forest growth,and should be considered in forest management. The value of carbon sequestration has a positive impact on the price of wood and realizes a double increase in the economic value of wood and ecological value of forests,and also maximizes the sum of carbon sink income and wood income. The government should attach importance to the value of forest＇s carbon sequestration and incorporate it into the wood price management system to improve forest managers＇ enthusiasm,provide solid logistics support,and basic human resources for the sustainable development of forestry.