基于四参照点前景理论的股市投资应急决策方法

Emergency decision-making method for stock investment based on forecast theory with four reference points

针对股市突发事件,首先提出一种基于四参照点的第三代前景理论的应急决策方法;然后,提出基于四参照点的单个前景值快速集结为综合前景值的方法,并将该方法运用于股市投资各情景下综合前景值的计算;最后,将各情景下的综合前景值转变为各方案的期望前景值,并最终以该期望前景值作为投资者动态调整应急方案的依据.算例表明:基于四参照点的期望前景值比三参照点、二参照点及一参照点更能反映投资者的心理决策过程;基于四参照点个体前景值的信息集结方法更能准确地综合前景价值信息,由此得到各方案的期望前景价值也更能反映客观实际;所提出的方法比等权信息集结方法或者传统的复杂信息集结方法更适用于股市应急投资决策.

In view of the emergency events in stock markets, this paper firstly proposes an emergency decision-making method based on the third generation prospect theory with four reference points. Then we propose a fast information aggregation method that can change the individual prospect values into comprehensive ones quickly and efficiently, where the individual values are based on the four reference points respectively. Finally, we change the comprehensive prospect values into the form of expected ones under various scenes, and take them as the criterion of choosing emergency strategies.The results of numeral case show that： The expected prospect values based on the four reference points are more accurate to reflect the decision-making process of investors, comparing with three reference points, two reference points or only one reference point; The information aggregation method can aggregate the individuanl prospect values more quickly,and the expected ones developing from the comprehensive ones also can better reflect the reality; The proposed decision method is better than the ones based on equal weight or the ones based on complex aggregation algorithms in emergency decision for stock investment.