“十二五”期间我国油茶产业发展特征分析

Analysis on the Development Characteristics of Camellia oleifera Industry During the“Twelfth Five-year Plan”Period in China

以"十二五"期间我国油茶产业产值为研究对象,分析油茶产业发展概况,采用偏离-份额分析法研究油茶产业在各省发展的特点,并根据GM(1,1)预测模型预测2020年油茶产业产值。结果表明:我国油茶产业年产值2015年比2011年增长了157. 9%,各省油茶产业发展分化严重,湖南和江西所占比例分居第一和第二,处于绝对的主导地位;油茶产业在各省林业产业中所处的地位差异较大,江西、广西、广东和贵州4省油茶产业为竞争性强的优势产业;预测2020年我国油茶产业年产值达到1535. 45亿元,湖南和江西分别占全国的33. 4%和32. 9%,在全国油茶发展中仍占主导地位。

The article took the output value of Camellia oleifera industry in China during the ″Twelfth Five-year Plan″ period as the research object,analyzing its development situation. It used the shift-share method studying its characteristics in all provinces,and using GM（ 1,1） model predicted the production of Camellia oleifera in 2020. The results showed that the annual output value of Camellia oleifera industry in 2015 year than in 2011 year increased by 157. 9% in China,and its development in each province was seriously divided; the proportion of Hunan and Jiangxi were the first and second respectively,and they were an absolute dominant position in all provinces; it had a great difference in forestry industry in all provinces,the Camellia oleifera industrys in Jiangxi,Guangxi,Guangdong and Guizhou provinces were a highly competitive advantage industry; it is predicted that the annual output value of Camellia oleifera industry in China reached 153. 545 billion yuan in 2020,Hunan and Jiangxi account for 33. 4% and 32. 9% respectively,they still had a dominant position in Camellia oleifera development in China.