大学教育回报:基于大学扩招的自然实验

Returns to College Education:A Natural Experiment from Expansion of Higher Education in China

本文基于1999年中国高等教育扩招这个自然事件,利用断点回归设计方法检验高等教育与就业、收入和生活满意度之间的因果关系。实证研究发现,第一,高等教育显著地提高了城镇居民的就业率。第二,高等教育与城镇居民和农村居民的收入之间都存在着显著的因果关系,高等教育对城镇居民收入的年度回报率为17.1%,对农村居民收入的年度回报率为15.9%。第三,高等教育对全部样本的生活满意度的影响不显著,但是在农村样本中,本文发现了高等教育提高生活满意度的证据。尽管高等教育扩招之后出现了一些问题,如大学生就业困难等,但是本文仍然发现了高等教育扩招之后,高等教育导致人力资本加速积累,以及农村居民生活满意度有所增加等积极意义。

Based on the empirical evidences after China＇s expansion of higher education in 1999, this paper uses regression discontinuity design to test the linkage from college education to employment, income, and life satisfaction. The results of this paper are as follows： firstly, the expansion of higher education significantly increases the employment rate in the urban sample. Secondly, there is a significant cause relationship between higher education and income in both urban sample and rural sample. The annual return to college education is respectively 15. 8 percent in urban sample and 13.7 percent in rural sample. Thirdly, there is no significant association between college education and life satisfaction in the total sample; but college education has impacts on life satisfaction in the rural sample. Although there are a series of problems and challenges ＇after China＇s expansion of higher education, including declining education quality and low employment after graduation, this paper still identifies some positive returns on China＇s expansion of higher education.