2013-2015年太原市大气臭氧浓度与新生儿早产关系的时间序列分析

Time-series analysis of association between ambient ozone and premature birth in Taiyuan , 2013-2015

目的 探讨太原市大气污染物臭氧与新生儿早产的相关性.方法 从中国环境监测网站以及中国数据气象网收集太原市2013—2015年大气污染物臭氧逐日平均浓度和逐日8 h最大浓度、PM2.5的逐日平均浓度、气象因素（包括日平均气温和相对湿度）及每日新生儿早产数,采用时间序列分析方法,使用广义线性模型分析新生儿出生前4周暴露于大气污染物臭氧与新生儿每日早产数的关系,并对新生儿的性别进行亚组分析.使用双污染物模型（臭氧和PM2.5）以及改变模型自由度的方法进行敏感性分析.结果 太原市2013—2015年大气污染物臭氧逐日平均浓度和8 h最大浓度均值分别为45.35、71.33 μg/m^3.不同的暴露窗口期对新生儿早产的效应不同,出生前3周、出生前4周大气污染物臭氧逐日平均浓度每增加10 μg/m^3,新生儿早产的风险增大,RR值分别为1.090（95%CI ：1.042-1.139）、1.095（95%CI ： 1.032-1.163）.男婴更容易受到大气污染物臭氧的影响,出生当天臭氧逐日平均浓度每增加10 μg/m^3,男婴、女婴早产的风险RR值分别为1.013（95%CI ： 0.997-1.029）、0.996（95%CI ： 0.983-1.010）;出生当天臭氧逐日平均浓度与臭氧逐日8 h最大浓度每增加10 μg/m^3,新生儿产的风险RR值分别为1.006（95%CI ： 0.994-1.017）、0.997（95%CI ： 0.988-1.005）.结论 出生前暴露于大气污染物臭氧可能会增加新生儿早产的风险,不同的暴露期新生儿早产的风险会存在差异,且这种风险在男婴中更加显著.

Objective To understand the correlation between ambient ozone （O3） and premature birth in Taiyuan. Methods The data of O3daily average concentrations and maximum concentration of 8 hours, PM2.5daily average concentrations, meteorological factors （including the average temperature and relative humidity） and daily premature birth numbers during 2013-2015 were collected in Taiyuan from China National Environmental Monitoring Center and China Meteorological Administration. The models were developed by using generalized linear model. The gender of the premature birth was analyzed by subgroup analysis. Sensitive analysis were used to estimate the model stability. Results Ambient O3daily average concentrations and maximum concentration of 8 hours in Taiyuan of 2013 to 2015 were 45.35 μg/m^3 and 71.33 μg/m^3respectively. In single pollutant model, the effects of different window exposures on premature birth were different. The RR of preterm birth about an increase of 10 μg/m^3of O3（lag 3 weeks, lag 4 weeks） were 1.090 （95%CI ： 1.042-1.139）,1.095 （95%CI ： 1.032-1.163） respectively. According to the infant gender subgroup analysis, male infants were more likely to be affected by ambient O3. The average daily of O3concentration increased by 10 μg/m^3, and the RR for male infants and female infant were 1.013 （95%CI ： 0.997-1.029）, 0.996 （95%CI ： 0.983-1.010） respectively. By comparing the daily average concentration of O3with the maximum daily concentration of O3for 8 hours as an indicator of exposure, it was found that the daily average concentration of O3was more sensitive. The RR of preterm birth about an increase of 10 μg/m^3of average daily of O3concentration and the maximum daily concentration of O3for 8 hours. were 1.006 （95%CI ： 0.994-1.017） and 0.997 （95%CI ： 0.988-1.005） respectively. As for sensitive analysis, when O3introduced PM2.5or change the degree of model variables, the association of premature birth was still constant. Conclusion Prenatal exposure to O3may increase the risk of premature birth, with different window exposures premature births have different risks and this risk is more pronounced in male infants.