2018年石油市场半年回顾与展望

Review and prospect of oil market of semi-annual in 2018

2018上半年,全球经济增长维持景气周期,石油需求良好、欧佩克超配额减产,推动石油市场提前实现再平衡。此外,地缘政治事件频发、基金大肆炒作,助推国际油价震荡走高,同比上涨超过30%。下半年,中美贸易战态势、伊朗石油出口下降幅度以及沙特阿拉伯增产节奏三大核心事件将主导国际油价走势。总体来看,下半年石油市场供需仍然紧张,去库存态势仍将延续,布伦特原油价格多数时间运行区间为70~80美元/桶,WTI与布伦特原油价差或将维持较宽水平。

In the first half of 2018, the global economy witnessed a sustaining boom cycle and sound oil demand and high compliance of OPEC output reduction drove the global oil market to achieve rebalance ahead of schedule. Moreover, frequent geopolitical incidents and roaring speculation of managed money have greatly boosted the global oil prices, with a year-on-year growth of over 30 percent. In the second half of 2018, such three main events as the intensifying trade conflict between China and U.S., the decline in Iranian export volume under American sanctions, and the potential increase in Saudi Arabia oil production will collectively dominate the trend of global oil prices. On the whole, the global oil market will remain tight in the second half of this year, with a continuing destocking momentum. For most of the time, Brent will run at the range of 70-80 USD/barrel, and the WTI/Brent spread may stay at a relatively wide level.