利用HBV水文预报模型推算贺江流域洪水致灾临界雨量

Critical Rainfall Determination of Hejiang River Basin Floods Based on HBV Model

利用逐日气象水文资料,针对贺江流域进行HBV水文模型率定与验证,获得降水-流量关系,结合广西贺州市信都水文站的水位-流量关系,推算得到3个洪水风险预警级别对应的临界雨量,并通过2次历史洪水过程,检验该临界雨量在暴雨洪涝灾害风险预警中的应用效果。结果表明:(1)由HBV水文模型确定的贺江流域3个不同洪水风险等级下24h、48h的致灾临界雨量,预警效果较好;(2)HBV模型能很好地反映降水对贺江水文过程的影响,可为贺江流域暴雨洪涝灾害防御工作提供决策参考。

Using the daily meteorological and hydrological data,the HBV model is calibrated and validated for the Hejiang River Basin and the relationship between rainfall and discharge is established.Since the stage-discharge relationship of the Xindu hydrological station is built,the critical rainfall values corresponding with the three flood risk levels are obtained.The risk warning effectiveness is verified by applying the critical rainfall to two historical flood processes caused by heavy rainfall.The results show that the 24-and 48-hour critical rainfall values are important for warning.The calibrated HBV model can well represent the responses of hydrological processes to the rainfall,which provides references for Hejiang River Basin flood disaster prevention.