旅游产业、区域经济与城镇化关系研究——基于线性、非线性、面板Granger因果关系检验

EMPIRICAL RESEARCH ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TOURISM INDUSTRY,REGIONAL ECONOMY,AND URBANIZATION:BASED ON LINEAR,NONLINEAR,AND PANEL GRANGER CAUSALITY TEST

从国家级与省级层面运用线性、非线性、面板Granger因果关系检验对旅游产业发展、区域经济增长、城镇化之间相互关系进行实证研究。研究发现三者之间关系在国家级与省级层面的表现方式不同,国家级层面的线性Granger因果关系检验表明旅游产业主要通过影响经济增长然后引起城镇化发展,而非线性检验却显示旅游产业对城镇化也存在直接影响,非线性Granger方法的引入,对传统线性方法的结论做了深入和补充;省级层面的面板Granger检验结果表明旅游产业发展对城镇化水平的提升具有较为明显的作用,与国家级层面的非线性检验结果一致;同时检验结果表明国家级与省级层面城镇化对旅游产业发展、区域经济发展的影响都不显著。最后根据检验结果提出相关政策建议。

From the national and provincial level, this paper uses linear, nonlinear, and panel Granger causality test to research the interrelation among the development of the tourism industry, regional economic growth, and urbanization. The study finds that the expressions of three relationships between the national and provincial levels are different, in which national-level linear Granger causality test shows that the tourism industry mainly influences economic growth and then affects urbanization development, and the nonlinear Granger causality test shows that the tourism industry has a direct impact on urbanization. The introduction of nonlinear Granger causality test deepens and supplements the traditional linear methods and conclusions. However, provincial level panel Granger test results show that the development of tourism has obvious effect to enhance the level of urbanization, which is consistent with national- level nonlinear Granger causality test results. And the test also shows that the impact of urbanization on the tourism industry, and regional economic development is not significant in both national and provincial level. Finally, policy recommendations are proposed based on the test results.