金融周期如何影响经济周期波动?

How Does The Financial Cycle Affect The Business Cycle?

金融体系对经济发展有着重要影响,金融体系运行是否独立于经济运行、是否具有"非中性"特征,是金融周期理论研究的起点。金融周期怎样影响长期经济增长和短期经济波动、传导机制如何,则是金融周期理论的核心。马克思主义经济周期与金融周期理论、债务-通缩理论、金融加速器理论、金融不稳定理论基本上构成了金融周期的理论基础。理论和实证研究表明,金融周期对经济周期短期波动具有加速器作用,该作用具有非对称性;金融周期能够预测经济周期;金融周期对中长期经济增长波动具有重要影响。

The financial system has an important impact on economic development. To what extent is the financial system independent on real economy？ To answer this question is what the financial cycle theory originally intended to do. Meanwhile, the transmission mechanism of the financial cycle to long-term economic growth and short-term economic fluctuations is the core of the financial cycle theory. Marxist economic cycle and financial cycle theory, the debt-deflation theory, the financial accelerator theory and the financial instability theory principally constitute the theoretical basis of the financial cycle. Our theoretical and empirical studies show that the financial cycle accelerates the short-term economic cycle which is asymmetric; the financial cycle can be used to predict the economic cycle; and the financial cycle has an important impact on the medium and long-term economic growth and volatility.