中国债务杠杆形成机制的理论与实证研究

Theoretical and Empirical Analysis on the Formation Mechanism of China's Debt Leverage

近年来,过高的债务杠杆水平已经成为我国经济金融稳定运行的重要威胁。基于债务供给与需求视角的理论分析表明,债务杠杆的形成与变化既取决于货币政策调整和金融资源配置功能带来的债务产生与规模变动,同时还会受到经济周期性循环过程中宏观经济环境变化带来的经济主体融资意愿以及债务承受能力变化的影响。对中国债务杠杆实证分析的结果显示,货币供应量增加、金融体系规模扩张、经济增速和盈利能力下滑等是我国债务杠杆攀升的主要因素,利率、金融体系结构以及资产价格的影响程度较小而且有一定的滞后性。研究结论可为合理制定"去杠杆"政策提供参考。

In recent years, the excessive debt leverage has become an significant threat to the stable operation of China＇s economy and finance. The theoretical analysis based on the perspective of debt supply and demand shows that the formation and change of debt leverage depends on not only the debt generation and scale change brought by the monetary policy adjustment and the financial resource allocation function, but also the changes of the willingness of economic entities for financing and their debt sustainability in different macroeconomic environment during the cyclical cycle of economy. The empirical analysis shows that the increase in China＇s debt leverage is mainly affected by the increase in money supply, the expansion of the financial system, and the decline in the economic growth rate and the profitability of the real economy sector. Moreover, interest rates, financial system structure and asset prices also have relatively less impact on leverage, but have a certain time lag. The conclusions of the study provide a reference for the rational formulation of the＂de-leverage＂policy.