政治不确定性对上市公司现金持有水平的影响

Will Political Uncertainty Affect the Cash Holding Decisions of Chinese Listed Companies?

本文使用2004年至2014年的数据,考察政治不确定性对中国上市公司现金持有水平的影响。总体来说,上市公司在城市官员换届的年份会减少现金的持有量,这个结论在采用多种稳健性检验方法的情况下仍然成立。进一步研究发现,规模较小的企业和负债较少的企业在官员变更期间将会更为显著地减少现金的持有。官员的来源也会对现金持有水平产生影响,换届时,如果新任官员属于外部调任的情况,相对而言,上市公司面临的政治冲击更大,从而会更显著地减少持有的现金。同时,我们对比了一线与非一线城市的企业在面对政治不确定性时现金持有决策上的区别。

In this paper, we examine the impact of political uncertainty on the cash holding level of Chinese listed compa-nies using data from 2004 to 2014. In general, the cash holding level in listed companies will be reduced with changes of city officials, and the result holds when using a variety of robustness check methods. Based on further studies, we find that smaller companies and less indebted companies will be more likely to reduce their cash holding due to greater political risks. In addi-tion, the cash holding will be impacted by the geographic origin of the city official. If new officials come from a different city, the listed company will face higher political uncertainty, and thus hold less cash. At the same time, the differences in decision-making on cash holding in face of political uncertainty between first-tier cities and non-first-tier cities are studied.