基础教育的财政投入与人力资本结构的优化--基于CHIP数据和县级数据的考察

Fiscal Investment on Basic Education and Optimization of Human Capital Structure:A Study Based on CHIP Data and County Data

人力资本结构的优化对于长期的经济增长而言意义重大。而公共财政对基础教育的投资能够促进未来高等教育型人力资本的积累,从而影响未来的人力资本结构。为此,本文结合理论分析,以中国家庭收入调查项目(CHIP)和县级数据为基础,利用logit模型分析了关于基础教育的财政投入对未来高等教育型人力资本积累的促进作用;并在此基础上,结合县级人口普查数据探讨了县级财政的基础教育投资对未来人力资本结构的影响。在实证方法上,本文除使用基本的logit模型和OLS进行回归分析以外,还综合使用MM估计量、工具变量法等方法进行稳健性分析,以消除异常值的影响和人口流动性所产生的内生性问题。最后的实证结果均较好地支持了本文的理论研究假说。

The optimization of human capital structure is of great importance for long-term economic growth. By protnoting the accumulation of tertiary human capital, the fiscal investment in basic education can affect the human capital structure in the future. Combining with the theoretical analysis, this paper analyzes the contribution from the fiscal investment on basic educa-tion to the future accumulation of tertiary human capital by using data from the Chinese Household Income Survey Project （CHIP） and county data. And based on the analysis, this paper also studies the effect of the fiscal investment in basic educa-tion on the future human capital structure by using county-level census data. In terms of the empirical approach, in addition to OLS regression and the logit model, this article also uses the methods of MM estimator and instrumental variable regression to perform robustness analysis, in order to eliminate the disturbances from outliers and endogeneity caused by migration. The final empirical result better supports the theoretical hypothesis.