2018年上半年辽宁省生猪生产形势分析及后期预测

Situation Analysis and Late Forecast of Production of Pigs in Liaoning Province in the First half of 2018

近十年来,养猪经历了大约三个波动周期,与同样养殖低谷的2010年和2014年相比,2018年上半年养殖效益低于2010年同期,价格低于2014年同期,可以说是最为惨淡的一段时间。产品价格持续下跌,养殖效益严重亏损,养殖户纷纷减产;消费市场低迷,节日效应未现,学校、工地等大集团消费不明显。目前来看,产能削减仍未到位,后期消费动力不足,生猪生产正处于相对较长时间的低谷期,今年全年生产亏损或保本微利的格局基本清晰,想再现上两年的繁荣景象已无可能。

Over the past 10 years, pig farming has experienced about three cycles of fluctua - tions. Compared with 2010 and 2014, which were the same low season, the efficiency of breeding in the first half of 2018 was lower than in the same period in 2010, and the price was lower than in the same period in 2014. It can be said that it was the most bleak period of time. The price of products has continued to fall, the aquaculture benefits have been seriously lost, and farmers have reduced production. The consumer market is sluggish, the holiday effect is not present, and the consumption of large groups such as schools and construction sites is not obvious. At present, the production capacity reduction is still not in place, the late consumption power is not enough, pig production is in a relatively long period of low Valley, this year＇s production loss or the pattern of guaranteed profit is basically clear, it is impossible to reproduce the previous two years of prosperity.