基于GM(1,1)模型的我国人口老龄化预测

Prediction on the Population Aging of China Based on GM(1, 1)

依据1996—2015年我国65岁及以上老年人口数和抚养比,建立灰色GM(1, 1)模型,对2016—2020年我国人口老龄化状况进行预测,结果表明,到2020年,我国65岁及以上老年人口数达1.6427亿人,抚养比高达15.0336%,没有下降的趋势,人口老龄化形势非常严峻。为有效缓解人口老龄化问题,应大力发展老龄化产业,构建社区老年人服务体系,办好老年人的教育与就业,继续开放生育政策,吸纳外来人口以降低老龄抚养压力。

The prediction of population aging of year 2016-2020 via grey GM（1, 1） model built on the ratio of senior citizens aged 65 and above and dependency ratio from 1996 to 2015 shows a highly tense situation of year 2020 with 164.27 million of senior citizens aged 65 and above and the dependency ratio as high as 15.0336%, without downtrend. To relieve population aging pressure, industries concerning senior citizens should be greatly encouraged, communities should be built systematically to serve senior citizens, education and employment for senior citizens should be solved, birth control should be further alleviated and external population should be introduced to handle high dependency ratio.