尼泊尔西部偏远山区农村家庭贫困动态--依据面板数据的实证研究

Rural household poverty dynamics in the Far-Western Hills of Nepal:empirical evidence from panel data

与很多文献中的描述相反,持续贫困并非静态性的,认识这种动态性对政策制定者来说至关重要。因此,我们对面板数据进行了多类别逻辑回归和二元逻辑回归分析,以把握尼泊尔西部偏远山区农村的贫困动态。多类别逻辑回归分析结果显示,在较为偏远的梅劳里农村发展委员会辖区,女性户主家庭、户主为年长男性且受教育程度较低的家庭、抚养比较高的家庭、参与社区组织程度较低的家庭所面临的长期贫困风险要明显高很多。二元逻辑回归将暂时贫困分解分析,结果显示职业种姓(OCs)家庭和梅劳里地区的家庭陷入贫困的风险相对较高,因为他们获得的社会经济资源相对有限。自然灾害的发生也增加了家庭陷入贫困的风险。相反,家庭户主受教育年限越多,就越易于摆脱贫困。因此,要想解决长期和暂时贫困,有必要将扶贫计划的重点放在相对偏远的农村和职业种姓家庭上,促进教育,创造就业。另外,引入自然灾害发生后的临时救助计划和弥补相关损失的保险计划,也将有助于减轻暂时贫困。

An understanding of the dynamics of persistent poverty that is not static, contrary to its portrayal in the literature, is important for policy-makers. We therefore performed multinomial logistic regression and binary logistic regression on panel data to capture rural poverty dynamics in Nepal's Far-Western Hills. The former revealed that the risk of experiencing chronic poverty was significantly higher for households in the more remote village development committee of Melauli, those headed by women or older men with less education, and those with higher dependency ratios and lower participation levels in community-based organisations. The latter, entailing disaggregation of transient poverty, revealed a higher risk of moving into poverty for members of occupational castes(OCs) and households in Melauli because of their limited socioeconomic assets. The occurrence of natural disasters also increased households' risks of moving into poverty.Conversely, more years of schooling among household heads facilitated movement out of poverty. Thus, poverty reduction programmes focusing on relatively remote villages and OCs that promote educational access and employment generation are necessary to address chronic and transient poverty. Further,the introduction of temporary relief programmes following natural disasters, and of insurance schemes for covering associated losses, will alleviate transient poverty.