基于修正KMV模型的我国科技型中小企业信贷风险测算研究

Research on Credit Risk of China's SME Based on Modified KMV Model

科技型中小企业是社会经济发展中最具创新活力的企业群体,但因融资难问题制约了其发展的空间。本文在分析科技型中小企业的特征及其各期风险的基础上,对KMV模型进行评价修正后来测算我国科技型中小企业的信贷风险,并与刘梅娟(2014)测算的国有企业信贷风险评估结果进行对比分析,结果得出科技型中小企业比国有企业违约概率要高,表明科技型中小企业比国有企业的信贷风险要大。最后据此提出防范信贷风险的几点对策建议。

Technological SMEs are the most innovative and dynamic enterprise groups in social and economic development. However, financing difficulties have restricted their development space. In this paper, this paper revise the KMV model to calculate the credit risk of the small and medium sized enterprises in China, based on the analysis of the characteristics of small and medium-sized enterprises and the risk of each period, and compare the results of the credit risk assessment of the state-owned enterprises calculated by Liu Meijuan （2014）, and conclude that the small and medium-sized enterprises of science and technology are more than the state-owned enterprises. The probability of default is high, which indicates that the credit risk of small and medium-sized enterprises is larger than that of state-owned enterprises. Finally, it puts forward several countermeasures and suggestions to prevent credit risks.