基于非期望产出和门槛回归模型的环渤海地区生态效率

Eco-efficiency in the Bohai Rim area based on undesirable outputs and threshold regression model

利用基于非期望产出的SBM模型测算2005-2015年环渤海地区44个城市的生态效率,刻画其时空演化特征,并运用面板门槛回归模型分析其影响因素。研究表明:(1)未考虑非期望产出的环渤海地区生态效率值总体被高估,说明经济活动的非期望产出确实降低了实际经济价值,考虑非期望产出具有科学性、合理性。(2)2005-2010年,生态效率类型整体呈现"进化"特征;2010-2015年,整体呈现暂时性"退化"特征;可能与经济发展方式转变和驱动力转换有关。(3)各地区生态效率各类型数量和分布特征存在省际差异性和非均衡性,相同生态效率水平类型地区空间集聚特征显著。(4)科技水平、城市规模、对外开放、环境规制对地区生态效率均表现出双门槛特征,产业结构等对地区生态效率产生重要影响;提高科技吸收再创新能力、联防治污能力和人口素质,强化对外开放的"技术效应",将增强各门槛变量对环渤海地区生态效率的促进作用;同时优化产业结构、加强信息化建设亦是提高该地区生态效率的重要举措。

Using the slack based measure（SBM） model of undesirable outputs, we measured the eco-efficiency of 44 cities in the Bohai Rim area from 2005 to 2015, depicted the spatiotemporal change characteristics, and analyzed the influencing factors with panel threshold regression model for stimulating ecological civilization construction and sustainable development. The results are as follows：（1） Eco-efficiency value is generally overestimated without considering undesirable outputs, indicating that undesirable outputs in the process of economy activities reduced true economy value fairly and considering undesirable outputs is reasonable;（2）From 2005 to 2010, the eco-efficiency types generally improved, but they deteriorated from 2010 to 2015,possibly relating to the transform of economic development mode and driving forces;（3） There exits interprovincial differentiation and imbalance in the number and spatial distribution of eco-efficiency types and a clear spatial aggregation character in regions of same eco-efficiency type;（4） Double threshold character appears in the relation of technology level, city scale, openness to the outside world, and environmental regulation for eco-efficiency. Industrial structure has a vital impact on regional eco-efficiency. Improving the capabilities of technology uptake and re-innovation, joint pollution control, and the quality of population, strengthening the ＂technical effect＂ heightening positive influences of threshold variables on ecological efficiency in the Bohai Rim area, and optimizing industrial structure and information system construction are also important methods for improving ecological efficiency.