基于云模型和D-S理论的PPP项目风险评价研究

A Risk Assessment of PPP Projects Based on Cloud Model and D-S Theory

针对PPP项目风险因素模糊性和随机性的特点,提出了一种基于云模型和D-S理论的PPP项目风险评价方法。先确定合理的PPP项目风险评价指标,运用云模型理论划分PPP项目风险等级,运用D-S理论确定各风险评价指标的权重值,建立PPP项目风险评价综合模型。实例检验表明:采用云模型和D-S理论综合评价体系能够实现对各种风险因素定性与定量评价的相互转化,更加精确地确定各风险指标的权重大小,具有一定的科学性和合理性。此外,云数字特征图能够清晰直观地反映项目的整体风险水平,对于项目决策者客观评价项目风险具有较高的参考价值。

Given the fuzziness and randomness of risk factors in PPP projects,a risk assessment method of PPP projects based on cloud model and D-S theory is proposed. Firstly,this study determines the evaluation indexes for PPP project＇s risk by using the cloud model theory to divide the risk level of PPP projects and using the D-S theory to determine the weight value of each risk evaluation index. Finally, this study establishes a comprehensive risk evaluation model of PPP projects. A case study of Chongqing Huan Tou PPP project shows that the cloud model and D-S theory can make the qualitative and quantitative evaluation of various risk factors and determine the weight of each risk index more accurately. In addition,the cloud digital map can clearly and intuitively reflect the overall risk level of the project,which is of high reference value for decision-makers to objectively evaluate the project risk.