基于梯形模糊数的皖北地区地下水健康风险评价

HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT OF GROUNDWATER IN NORTHERN ANHUI BASED ON TRAPEZOIDAL FUZZY NUMBER

通过将地下水污染物浓度梯形模糊化,来降低地下水健康风险评价中的不确定性问题。结合聚类分析和α-截集技术,构建了地下水健康风险评价的梯形模糊化模型,对皖北地区某村庄的地下水进行健康风险评价。结果表明:该地区的总健康风险为7.96×10^(-5)～1.46×10^(-4),主要由致癌风险Cr(VI)和As引起,对人体有一定的负面影响。对比分析得出,梯形模糊化模型在一定程度上降低了常规模型的不确定性问题,与其他模糊化模型相比,具有适用范围广、高效快捷等优点;Cr(VI)、As等致癌风险指标水质评价不超标,但具有较大的健康风险,在今后的健康风险评价中应重点关注此类指标。

The trapezoidal fuzzy model of groundwater heahh risk assessment was used to convert the groundwater pollutant concentration into trapezoidal fuzzy number, in order to reduce the problem of uncertainty. Combining with the cluster analysis and or-cutting technique, the model was established and applied to the evaluation of groundwater health risk in a village in northern Anhui. The results showed that the total health risk in the area was between 7.96 x 10 -5 ~ 1.46 x 10-4, and the main health risks were caused by chromium（VI） and arsenic. It had some negative effects on the human body. The results showed that the trapezoidal fuzzy model reduced the problem the uncertainty of determining of the normal model. Compared to other fuzzy models, the trapezoidal fuzzy model had wider scope of application and could get the results more efficiently and quickly. The chromium（VI） and arsenic were not above the standard, but had the high level of health risk grades. In the future health risk assessment we should pay more attention to these indexes.