动态灰色-时序模型在建筑物沉降预测中的应用

Application of Dynamic Grey Model-time Series in Deformation Monitoring

针对灰色模型和时间序列都无法准确预测建筑物波动性沉降的问题,本文采用动态灰色模型和时间序列相结合的方法来预测分析其沉降趋势。首先根据监测数据建立灰色模型,在此基础上构建动态灰色模型来拟合时间序列中的趋势项,然后依据时间序列进行预测。结果表明:动态灰色-时序模型能够准确预测建筑物的变化趋势。

To solve the problem that the grey model and time series can’t predict the settlement of the building accurately, this paperadopts the method of combining the dynamic grey model and the time series to predict the settlement trend. First of all, according tothe monitoring data, the grey model is established, and then the dynamic gray model is constructed to fit the trend term in the time series. The results show that the dynamic grey time series model can accurately predict the change trend of buildings.